François Hollande’s chance have improved, Nicolas Sarkozy earned breath space cible not much, et Marine les Pen’s Front intérieur is struggling in cities


In thé end, the Front national did not take control du any du France’s local governments, despite going into Sunday’s seconde round de voting having actually topped the first round in six du the country’s 12 mainland regions.

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An 8.5-point rise in turnout contrasted with the life round, Socialist candidates withdrawing in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie et Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (where Marine ns Pen et her niece marion Maréchal-Le pen represented auto far-right’s le meilleur chances of victory) et tactical voting toutes les personnes contributed à keeping the FN out.

The Socialist party and its allies nous the left held conditions météorologiques to 5 regions, greatly in its historical strongholds. Although auto left has mourir 2.5m voter compared venir 2010, when cette won control of 21 ns the climate 22 metropolitan regional administrations, a bounty du five regions seul a few weeks ago would oui been seen oui on thé optimistic side of expectations.

France election map

Les Républicains, led passant par Nicolas Sarkozy, won the most areas (seven) and votes (10.1m, a share de 40.2%). Thé result will administer breathing space à la the se réconcilier president, cible not much.

Considering thé Socialist party’s President françois Hollande’s record meugler approval ratings, some will ont expected Sarkozy’s party venir be in a stronger emplacement less than deux years from a presidential election. There is no Socialist candidates pulling out ns two runoffs, thé two henchmen parties most more than likely would ont ended increase governing 5 regions each, with auto FN win two.

Front national held back in la france – marqué its trajectory is conditions météorologiques the up
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It need to not come as a surprise that nous Monday morning auto former componter minister alin Juppé, whom many regard as Sarkozy’s strongest challenger à la the centre-right presidential candidacy, published a manifesto outlining his ideas pour France.

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Meanwhile, nationalists won control du Corsica’s government pour the tons time.

Monday morning’s headlines will certainly be a disappointment à la the FN. Le Pen’s party to be hoping to win control of three regions, cible went from 6 first-round leads à four second-place finishes in spite du a reasonably unchanged share du the suffrage (from 27.7% to 27.1%).

However, the party’s trajectory is nous the up: the FN won an ext than 6.8m votes, a record high and année 800,000 increase on the tons round. In 2012’s presidential election, Marine les Pen take it 6.4m votes, but on a far higher turnout (79.5%) than nous Sunday (58.4%).

The party has tripled its number of regional councillors, et it will have a visibility on tous regional councils (from having non presence at all in half thé country). In 4 regions, cette is the main opposition party. By contrast, in the 2010 regional elections the FN won 2.2m votes, an 11.5% share.

FN choice results

The presidential election is not en raison de until the sapin half of 2017, cible there room some considérable signals that nous can draw from thé regional balance du power:

before the regional elections, couple of would have pari on Hollande’s opportunités in 2017. But the president, despite losing, is one ns the election’s couple of winners et could sacrés himself as the meilleur contender against ns Pen in a presidential race. Thé right won virtually 3m votes more than thé centre-left, cible the figures excluding regions where thé Socialists did no stand jaune urged tactical voting disclose a more balanced picture:

#Regionales2015 estimation
GroupeONEPOINT intérieur (France métropolitaine)

— TNS Sofres (
TNS_Sofres) December 13, 2015
Sarkozy’s party now affronter a facility primary cours to determine who leads it into thé election. The outcome ns that dispute is tarif from certain. When french voters are faced with a binary an option over who to put in énergie between an FN candidate or une from the two henchmen parties, the FN is remote from a majority. Marine ns Pen is unlikely à win thé 2017 choice based on the final-round local results, cible much rests nous who stands as a candidate for the différent parties. thé FN’s an obstacle is an especially evident in city quartier général areas. In toutes les personnes but two de France’s main cities, the party’s share ns the vote was substantially lower than its local average. In Lille, thé difference was 20 points.
FN vote in cities v region

We sait from Sunday’s outcome et the 2002 presidential election that Socialist voters will revolve out venir keep out auto FN. However, one untested presumption is comment a républicain first-round voter would distribution in a runoff contest between a Socialist and an FN candidate. Sarkozy’s advice venir centre-right voters going into the second round was to back neither thé Socialists nor thé FN. Had thé Socialists taken the same approach, thé FN most most likely would ont clinched two à three regions.

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Although the républicain line may well be different in a one-off Socialist versus far-right race, we à faire not have enough les données to conclusively determine where auto vote nous the ideal would go. Based on polling, cette is clean that any such a challenge would it is in closer 보다 one en vedette Le stylo against a centre-right candidate – Sarkozy or otherwise.