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Bruno Cautrès walk not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any entreprise or company that would advantage from this article, et has disclosed ne sont pas relevant affiliations beyond their scholastic appointment.

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The Conversation la france

A cycle of endless crisis

France has been in a cycle de endless crisis since 2018, when the gilets jaunes, or yellow vests, sapin burst onto thé political scene. Due to the fact that then, there has actually been a significant espacer between auto presidential récit of a la france that is relocating forward, and the political and social reality du a nation that doubts, worries et flares up at continuous intervals.

As the recent outcomes from ours Barometer of Political Confidence have shown, the covid crisis has actually not erased the french democratic crisis. In February, ma colleagues lucing Rouban, gilles Ivaldi et I concluded:

If public institutions oui shown their resilience in the visage of thé crisis, auto world of politics and everything that it embodies continue to be perceived negatively. The français democratic deficit has not been closed since auto election du Emmanuel Macron, even si some point are improving.

This is a conclusion we share with piron himself. Speaking at thé beginning of the gilets jaunes crisis, he said:

There is impatience, there is anger. Je share this anger, since there is une thing I have not managed venir do. I have not managed venir reconcile the français people with their leaders.

A blow venir Macronism

So at thé end ns these regional and departmental elections, thé last time the français people will marche to thé polls before the end du his mandate, je vous demande pardon room pour manoeuvre go Macron oui to stem this crisis ns political confidence?

First ns all, it’s considérable to noter that thé popularity ns the current head du state is today much higher than that de his predecessors. Most opinion polls place Macron’s popularity between 40 and 50%, which has been increasing for several weeks, driven par the improvement ns the wellness situation and the steady reopening of the nation after many longue months of lockdown.

According à a current survey, 50% de respondents had actually a great or brillant opinion de both Macron and his prime minister, jeans Castex, through the pair coming 5th et 6th in a list ns preferred french political les données (Marine ns Pen come in 28th place).


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Marine ns Pen: come in 28th in a current survey about France’s wanted political figures. EPA-EFE/Ian Langsdon

Despite this, it’s clear that the results ns the regional elections have exposed weaknesses of Macronism as a politics project. Walk into the 2022 presidential elections, panneau de longueur no plus long has a to win political machine in the form du his political-movement-turned-party, la République En Marche, or LREM.

While the party swept thé legislative voter of 2017, which swiftly complied with Macron’s presidential victory, ce performed much less well in thé European élection of May 2019, faltered in the local choisir of spring 2020 et has now resoundingly failure in the regional polls.

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A number of Macron’s ministers, including auto secretary du state for pensions, gradué Pietraszewski, and justice minister, Eric Dupond-Moretti, ran in thé regional elections et failed to make a mark, through the dégénérescence of hardline right-wing interior minister, gerald Darmanin, who handily won in Tourcoing, a northern city of which cette was previously mayor.

A lundi weakness is that Macronism does not seem to oui succeeded in imprinting an easily identifiables ideology jaune political theory on auditeur opinion. Macronism, in public opinion, is Emmanuel Macron. In a 2018 survey de LREM members, mien colleagues et I established a strong sense the this to be a “personal party” – individuel from Europe et education, ours survey verified that auto great causer of LREM was piron himself.

These deux weaknesses of Macronism describe a 3rd one, i m sorry came to light throughout these many recent elections: Macron et his party lack natural allies. If the 2017 presidential project could only be based nous the spectacular emergence du the “young Macron”, the 2022 project must explain to us v which majority et with which electoral syndicat the mature panneau de longueur will govern.

There is no easy answer venir this. 3 potential right-wing presidential candidates – Xavier Bertrand, Valerie Pécresse et Laurent Wauquiez – had actually perfectly successful local election projects without thé need for an agreement with thé party of Macron.


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laurent Wauquiez is a potential challenger à la the 2022 presidential election. Franc Chapolard/Shutterstock

Three questions avant 2022

As hey looks to the 2022 election, Marcon will certainly need à answer three significativement questions.

First, auto question du his presidential style and his leadership: after a mandate marked passant par major social, democratic and health crises, who is Emmanuel piron today? what has cette really learned from these recurring crises?

Second, why does panneau de longueur need a second mandate? auto deceptively facile answer (to prolong the reforms cette has currently put in place) can not be sufficient, oui the nation has experienced so many upheavals due to the fact that 2017 et the concis horizon is unclear.

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And finally, a second term, but with whom? An alliance with auto right-wing les Républicains? A new Macronist movement to change LREM?

He may not have toutes les personnes the answers now, but it’s doubtful the français president will be able to qualify for the seconde round du voting in 2022 if he does no respond venir each of these des questions eventually.